CIP 184 - Episode 5 - Where do you stand now_
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[00:00:00] Two real people. One number that should be impossible. Same week earlier this year, both sitting in the same express entry pool. The first, a strong, experienced professional, rock solid profile, a CRS score of 505. Years in the system refreshing the results page every couple weeks, watching the draws come and go.
That's individual number one. The second person scored 169 CRS points. 169. Under everything you think you know about express entry, that number is hopeless. So same week, same pool, one of them got the ITA for permanent residence, and the other is still waiting. Which one got it? It was the 169. The 505 is still waiting.
That is not a typo, my friends. It is not a glitch, and by [00:01:00] the end of tonight and this episode, wherever you're listening, it's gonna make complete sense because it is the single most important thing about express entry in 2026, and almost nobody is explaining it properly Mm-hmm. And before you walk away and say, "Well, wait a minute, that's just an outlier.
That is a freak case. That's not me. It doesn't apply to me," then pause for a moment. Yeah. It's, it's the opposite, you guys, of a freak case. It's the norm. Mm-hmm. And that's the whole system right now. And so if we take a look at what's going on and why people are not getting invitations to apply and who is getting an invitation to apply, it tells quite the story.
We have things going on right now with our CRS, and Mark and I go on, we do our live podcast or our live stream on our Q&A every week, and people are always asking, you know, "I have this [00:02:00] CRS. Do I have a chance?" And here's the difficulty, that most people are sitting somewhere between maybe high 400s, maybe mid-400s, and about a 505, and that is a huge pool of applicants sitting in the express entry profile right now.
And the fact that you have a 505, some people think, "Oh, I've got a fantastic chance," but it might actually be meaningless. It might be that that 505 is gonna cause you to wait for two years and not get an invitation to apply, and somebody with a 169, candidate B that we were talking about, might have many opportunities and might be getting an ITA right away.
So here's where we're going, everybody. Three things, and we deliver all three. One, we solve the 169 versus 505 paradox, and once you see the answer, you cannot unsee it. Two, we warn you about an entire category, one a huge number of [00:03:00] people are quietly betting their whole future on, that has gone completely dark for almost two years, and nobody is talking about it.
And three, somewhere in this pool is the person who did everything, everything the system told them to do, and they're the single most exposed person in this entire reform. We're going to introduce you. By the end of tonight, you'll be able to find yourself on the board, at least where you sit, and you'll know your one next move.
All right. Let's go, Alicia. Let's see what we can pull up with this here We call it the broken scoreboard So
Yeah. So we definitely wanna figure out, okay, what's happening with the pool right now? And this is where we can go to the IRCC webpage for express entry. We can take a look at the pool of candidates, and everybody's looking at who else is in the pool and what their CRS score is at. And so we know there are about 239,000 people who [00:04:00] qualify theoretically for express entry.
They've met those basic minimum eligibility criteria, and they have valid profiles. And so we're looking at figures in the pool as of late May. The reason we're looking for late May figures, and it's now June, is because there has not been a draw, Mark. There's not been a draw for all of June so far. So based on the most recent pool data, we know that looking at your CRS score and you- without understanding which eligibility criteria apply to you is going to be useless unless you understand these numbers and your relative chances within it.
Mm-hmm. Yeah. And it's so crazy, Alicia, because, you know, we've, we've harped on for a long time, we want to see the breakdown between 501 and 600. Like, where exactly do they sit? But the reality is right now, you know, there's just so many people that are just stagnant right in that red zone and just hoping.
'Cause in the past, Alicia, people who were just a little bit under 500, heck, if you go [00:05:00] back to the early days, all the way back to, you know, 413 in the early, early days, that used to be a respectable score. But now over all this time, this complete shift in, in demographic, this, this red zone is, is almost like a trap for people Yep.
Yeah, and so like imagine, Mark, if, you know, in Calgary we have our, our stadium, and we're sitting there, and we have a whole bunch of people, and let's imagine that that stadium is broken into different seats, right? And, ~um,~ the higher up you go, the better the seats, or maybe it's reversed, the lower down closer to the arena you go, the better the seats.
And we've got a huge amount- This is the new, the new Saddledome. I can't remember what it's being called there to replace our old Saddledome, but this is like the, this is the new stadium. That's right. So the closer you are to the action, the better the chance of getting picked. So the people down close to the, ~um,~ arena are the ones who have the higher scores.
And do you know what, Alicia? I'll also point out, too, they're always the [00:06:00] ones that get the free giveaways. Like, no one can launch a T-shirt all the way up to the nosebleed section, right? And so the reality is not only do they get a better view, but they get all the fancy little prizes and giveaways, and so, okay, I'll leave it at that.
They get all the media attention 'cause that's where the cameras are. It's true. So the people who are the privileged few right now are those who are above the 501, right? If you've got a score above 501 to 600, those are usually people who think they've got it made, with the caveat that sometimes if you're in a low 500, it's really uncertain about whether you're going to get that ITA.
We know the majority of the people are sitting in that trap. They are within the 451 to the 500 range. That's a lot of people, about 73,000 people. So, you know, if you're in your arena, that's one in every three people in the pool are within this bandwidth. And you're never gonna get that ticket. You're [00:07:00] never gonna be able to get closer to the floor, closer to the action if you're not strategic and looking at ways that you can increase your CRS score.
And then we have a huge number of people who, even though they're in the stadium, they probably can't see anything, and they have no chance of advancing closer to the action. Yeah. Yeah. That's exactly kinda where we're at right now. And with the uncertainty that's coming, ~um,~ you know, people who might be what...
in, in a seat that they think is, uh, and maybe they paid a lot for that seat, okay? They may find that the whole stadium has, has shifted, and it's adjusted. And so, you know, when you look at the, this, this paradox that we're talking about here, ~um,~ it's really hard to understand, ~um,~ you know, where the government is, is...
like, where this is ultimately gonna settle. We think we understand, but because of these changes, because of the, just how things are unfolding, ~um,~ the timing is really critical. ~Um,~ we could, we could see blanket changes tomorrow. [00:08:00] Uh, some of the stuff we know is gonna take a little bit longer, like we talked about before.
We fully don't understand the true impact of that. And even the things that we're talking about right now, and we'll get into this a little bit later, lots of people are speculating, Alicia. They are, they, they think they kind of have the scoop on things, and I would just... You know, we'll talk about this in, in, in a little bit later in the episode, but you have to understand, it's always a game of keeping as many options open as possible.
And we'll do our very best going forward here to try to identify and, and isolate where the real problems are. But when we, we look at this parag- this paradox, it, like, for all intents and purposes, it shouldn't be possible, but, but it is. So if we look at the CEC invitations by, by mid-June, you know, compared to last year, we've had 37,250 CEC, well, draws, uh, invitations by mid-June.
And compared to about [00:09:00] 12,850 at the same point last year, nearly triple the pace. So at the same time everybody is feeling like hope is lost and that the opportunities are so minuscule, you know, for some people, that, you know, the world is still moving forward. They're still having opportunities. ~Um,~ but the cutoff, it dropped down, and now with these delays, we're back up to, I think the highest was 518, the most recent one on May the 27th.
So, you know, this is... things are going up, increased ITA numbers, but yet CRS scores going up. Like, what, what is going on here, Alicia? Mm-hmm. And this is the difficult thing to try to figure out. Well, all we're looking at is data on invitations to apply, and the scores are going up. Why are the scores going up?
If we have more invitations going out, shouldn't that be pulling from the pool? Shouldn't you now have a better chance? And this is the problem, that a couple things are probably going [00:10:00] on. One is that people are realizing they got an ITA and maybe they shouldn't have, and so they're declining those ITAs, and that might be why there's more ITAs going out.
But two is that even though those ITAs are going out, more people are piling into the pool faster than they can have, ~um,~ a chance at, at success on another round of invitations. So we just have more people filling up those spots, and that CRS score is just not falling. No. You know, it's kind of like, you know, more draws, higher cutoffs.
It's like you're bailing a boat that's filling faster than your bucket can empty the water. I've been in those boats before. And so obviously the, the- for, for people that are in that, you know, under 500 range, even if you look five- five oh s- five oh five lower, that range even higher, I keep climbing up.
It's so crazy to think how high the CRS scores were. Man, if you were [00:11:00] th- that... had that many points, Alicia, even a couple years ago, it'd be a slam dunk. Like, it'd be a no-brainer. I, I remember when I had clients that were in the low 400s and like, "Oh, the scores are so high at five si- uh, at 460." And at that time, a person who had, based on those rules, who had a master's degree, who had three years of foreign work experience, who had English at a CLB 9, and, ~um,~ and was, uh, no, no older than 29, was at about 469 points, I think.
And those people could have, you know, would have no connection to Canada. They'd have no Canadian experience, no education, no work experience, and that was a good score, and we were doing a lot of work for people like that who were getting their invitations to apply coming from the US, coming from India, coming from, you know, literally all over the world.
And, and now that the whole landscape is, has really shifted, and it's, you know, the trend. It's, it's just, yeah, it's so bizarre. [00:12:00] So this is, this is the part to sit with. If your whole plan is, "I will just wait for the general cutoff to drift down to my score," the data is basically telling you that that's not a plan.
It's, I guess, a hope, and right now the trend is running the wrong way, which is exactly why the next thing we show, ~um,~ why it matters so much because there's a second way into this system, and it plays completely different than the rules generally. Mm-hmm. And I think this is fundamental for people to understand, Mark.
And, you know, theoretically IRCC is making these express entry reform changes to have greater transparency, right? So that people understand the system a little bit better. But the problem right now, and it'll probably be a problem that continues into the new system, is that a 505 is not the same as a 169.
So even though you have a higher CRS score, that does not necessarily mean you have a chance at an [00:13:00] ITA because there are different doors, right? We have a general CEC eligibility where that's where you have to have above 518 right now, and it could bounce upwards even, ~um,~ depending on how many rounds of invitations they issue in the next draw.
You have a huge high score under a CEC, but what's happening is that we are having category-specific draws, and that is a whole different world. It is a side door to this entire system And what I wanna explain to people and reiterate is you still have to have basic eligibility. But if you do have basic eligibility, then look at these category draws.
Yeah. It's basically there, there isn't one competition, right? There are two. And so, you know, back to our two people, the 501 still waiting, the 169 who's, hey, probably a permanent resident already, who knows? ~Um,~ here's the secret. They were never in the same competition. Not even close. There are two doors into permanent residence through express entry, and the [00:14:00] lines in front of them could not be more different.
And so one, general draws, the famous front door, if you will. Well, that's for everybody. And, and generally speaking, the Canadian experience draws that cutoff, at least more recently, was as high as 518. Well, that's the door our 505 candidate is stuck in. Close, agonizingly close, right? And we've seen this so much with our clients just waiting.
You know, we've got profiles in the pool where we thought, "Hey, you're-- you actually got a shot. It's coming down, it's dropping, it's dropping. Will it drop far enough?" But the line just keeps growing in front of them. It's brutal right now. It's brutal to watch, and it's the only door most people even really pay attention to.
Now, with that being said, the door two is massive, and it's not like people don't-- aren't aware of category-based draws. Over the last couple years, for sure, everybody is right on top of it. People are literally changing employment, switching and, and taking up jobs that they normally wouldn't have done in order to get [00:15:00] through those category-based draws.
And it's becoming more difficult now to just up and move because it takes a whole year to meet that minimum, uh, eligibility versus six months. And in a year, the whole categories could be changing. So, you know, the, the, th- there's still this, you know, this... It's kind of like, ~um,~ how do you describe it?
There's a second door, it's kind of around the side, right? A- and the line there is, is really a different world. So remember, you still need, like Alicia said, the basics of eligibility. So it's not like if you're eligible for a category-based draw, you're just instantly in and great, it somehow follows a different entry.
No. The, the reality is you still have to meet the eligibility threshold. And, ~um,~ these category, category-based draws, well, as we know, they're aimed at specific occupations and skills that allegedly the country's decided it urgently needs. Now, I've seen occupations on that list, Alicia, that make me a little crazy, like our, uh, insurance brokers and adjusters and, and things like that, where [00:16:00] I just, I just shake my head.
~Um,~ but at the end of the day, those we also know some of them have never even seen a round of invitations, so it's kind of water under the bridge. ~Um,~ but they're aimed at specific occupations that the country needs, and the reality is that the numbers will surprise you. So any time you've got, uh, an individual, ~um,~ that can get through those category-based draws, often the overall CRS is lower.
You look at the French language draws this year, they've gone as low as three hundred and ninety-three, Alicia. Healthcare in the 460s to kind of 480s. Uh, trades, 470s to 490s. And physicians, like, what's your take on physicians? 'Cause here we go. There's our one sixty-nine, right? You're wondering wh- who was that?
How did it get all the way down to one sixty-nine? Well, the mystery is solved. It was physicians, but like I was jokingly saying, I hope that's not my physician if they only have one sixty-nine, you know, CRS score. Uh, but what, what are your thoughts on that? Well, [00:17:00] physicians are the clear winners, right? We talked in our last episode about different profiles of people, and physicians are going to win.
And so even though there is a category-based draw for physicians, some of these physicians are getting in under a CEC general draw, right? Because they already have enough points, and maybe they did go through all their education credential assessments, and so they have multiple options. And that is the goal here, is to make sure that you have multiple options, so you have more chances at getting an invitation to apply.
Yeah. One thing I want to point out too here is that like we're not... I know for those of you who have been following this closely for years, that's fine. You know, that you, you know some of the stuff that we're talking about. But for new people who are just trying to figure the land out, they're trying to figure out what, you know, where they go, what they do, how they approach themselves.
You know, there's this, there's this issue that's way bigger. You know, i-if you're stuck at the front door, so the question that actually changes your life isn't how do I squeeze out [00:18:00] twenty more points? So in the past, we'd look at someone who was sitting at the five oh five and we'd say, "Okay, well, how do we figure out how to bump you up?"
Well, the reality for most people, there just isn't any more room to squeeze. Like, trying to get those extra twenty points is just, they're just not there to ha- to be had. And so it's, it's more, okay, take a look now. It's not how do I squeeze out the twenty more points? It's, it's, okay, there's a side door with my name on it, ~um,~ your occupation, your language, provincial nomination.
You know, obviously any one of those can pull you out of that seventy-three thousand person scrum and into a line that actually is moving. But it's not so easy, especially as the province strips a- the, the federal government strips away the nominations from the provinces. That's not as attractive. You know, language, once you max- maximize your language, it's, it's maximized.
But we know, as we can see at the very top of this slide, French language is really what we're talking about when it comes to language. It's a, it's a massive game changer and always has been, [00:19:00] and of course, the occupation. So those ones can allow you to kind of sidestep this crazy high CRS scores and potentially have an opportunity that you may not otherwise have had.
And so, you know, this, this reveal here, uh, it's, it's maybe not such a big, a big surprise, but I don't know what, what your thoughts are on this, Alicia. Yeah. And just like you mentioned, Mark, the problem with the side door, the problem with these category-based draws is even though we have 10 categories and you think, "Okay, well, I probably have a good shot because my occupation's on one of the category-specific lists, and I have one year of Canadian work experience within the last three," here's the problem.
Sometimes it's just dark. Those categories do not get drawn. For example, when we look at STEM, there has been zero draws over the last 23 months. When we look back at the [00:20:00] STEM draws, you know, IRCC was talking about needing tech workers, making sure that we are positioned. We have this whole digital nomad ability to come and be in Canada and not enter the Canadian labor market.
But the problem is these have fallen out of favor, and IRCC has simply not done a draw under the STEM category. So it's, it's always hard because it's a bit of a wild card. You don't want to necessarily change your entire life and your occupation and work for a year in a job if there's just not gonna be a draw.
And this is where there's no certainty, and this is where there is a bit of a wild card. We have seen some, some other occupations, we've seen some other categories, for example, researchers in Canada. We haven't had a draw there yet either, but that's a relatively new one. So the risk is you've got your side door, you kind of structure your life to have that specific NOC, and you gain one year of work experience, but maybe IRCC just doesn't do a draw.[00:21:00]
Yeah. Think, Alicia, think about what that means for someone actually living it. So you qualify for STEM, you've built your entire plan around that draw coming, and you've been standing at the bus stop for, like, two years while the schedule on the wall still says the bus is coming. So, so is it coming back, Alicia?
Well, and this is the problem. Maybe it's coming back, but maybe only if you have one of the STEM occupations that happens to also have a high wage median occupation or a multiplication factor of that high wage. Mm-hmm. You know, when I look at occupations themselves, ~um,~ if they truly don't want to do a STEM draw because some of the occupations really shouldn't be on the list, then, then remove them.
And as I look at what's happened as things have evolved, there's a reason cybersecurity specialists are on that [00:22:00] list. Every day as I follow the evolution and development of AI, and as I f- you know, follow other podcasts, and I, I watch and read and listen to what's happening, ~um,~ it is going to be a massive problem, a major disruptor.
~Um,~ just cyber attacks on everything from our inf- all kinds of things related to our infrastructure, banking, you name it. And so having... Like, companies are all desperate to, to find people that can help protect the data to, you know, the cybersecurity specialists are gonna be so high. At the same time, AI developers, right?
And so this is where these, these, these category-based draws become so, so difficult. But, you know, the reality is you could have, you know, an occupation that's on the list, but if they don't actually do a round of invitations, well, you can still be left out in the dark. But for sure, wages? Mm-hmm. That is, yeah, that's a, that's a major deal.
And, and here's, Mark, where the person standing in that line at [00:23:00] the bus stop, and they've been standing there for two years. Well, technically, 'cause if we're looking at express entry, really your profile can only be valid for one year. So let's say they're standing in that line for 11 months. Here's where they would win.
Here's where the gamble pays off, and that's where it's important to think about if you happen to meet basic program eligibility, if you also meet category-specific eligibility, then here is the detail that really decides who wins and who loses, and it is how long have you been in the pool? It is the tiebreaker rule, and this is why Mark and I over the years have always said, if you are eligible for express entry, the sooner you create your profile the better, as long as you are doing it properly and as long as you are not over counting or early counting your work experience.
You have to make sure there's no fraud or misrepresentation when you create your profile. But if you've created it properly, then if there were a draw specifically [00:24:00] exactly at five eighteen, then whoever has been in the pool the longest is going to win, and they will specifically publish, here is the tie-breaking date, and anybody who is exactly at five eighteen who had their profile in longer will get that ITA.
Anybody who created their profile recently loses out. Yeah. It's interesting, too, like that tiebreaker goes down to the very minute, maybe, I don't know, maybe second. And so they- when they cut it off, then there's winners and there's losers. Now, one thing to watch out for is that generally speaking, if the, if the round of invitations issues kind of an even number, like thirty-five hundred or something like that, then there's a pretty strong indication that, ~um,~ that not everybody that is on that exact CRS score that was drawn, if it's five eighteen, is gonna get drawn.
The, the tiebreaker really will exclude some that had five hundred and eighteen, ~um,~ and you know, but were later in submitting And when you see other rounds of [00:25:00] invitations where the number's kind of an odd number, then sometimes, uh, at least I think generally speaking, we can say that they just pulled everybody that was kind of in that range at that mark, and it included everybody.
And so evens are usually the tiebreaker plays a bigger role than, uh, kind of the uneven numbers that are, are being extended. So yeah, it's, it's interesting to see how this plays out. ~Um,~ so yeah, as you're going through this, it... You know, people who maybe earlier were, were, were gonna be winners, there's, there's gonna be changes that are going to affect people.
And going forward, people have to be aware of, of what's happening. ~Um,~ you know, entering the, uh, I'll just- maybe I'll just wrap this up, but like our slide says here, ~um,~ entering the pool the moment you're eligible is kind of itself a competitive move. You know, waiting until everything's perfect is probably not such a good move.
But at the same time, you have to monitor it carefully, and there's dynamics that come into play with the provinces, and some provinces wanna [00:26:00] see that your profile is valid for a certain period of time before they might consider you through one of the express entry draws. And, ~um,~ you know, the, the reality is, a- at least generally speaking, it's always a good idea to get into the pool as early as you can.
And remember, you do have the ability to update things. So let's say for example, you have written a language test and you're just a little bit shy of this magical CLB nine. Let's say you have a seven in listening, and you really want to hit that eight. Well You can get your profile in the pool and then have the ability to update if you rewrite the test.
In other instances, some people may say, "Well, I have one year, but, uh, I know I'm not gonna really get those bonus points until I hit the second year, so I'm gonna wait to submit my profile." Don't wait. As long as the work experience you meet the eligibility threshold of one year, put your profile in the pool, and then the system will automatically take into consideration that second year and, and round up your score.
Now, you have to be careful 'cause there are issues with the work history because they [00:27:00] only calculate by month, so they may ultimately give you an ITA before you've officially hit, let's say, for example, your two years just because of the way they round up by month. So if that's you and you're in that situation, you can reach out and we can help you kinda navigate through it.
But generally speaking, ~um,~ it just, it just makes sense for most people to be in a position where you can, uh, get your profile in as soon as possible and then update it. Okay. Let's bridge now 'cause we're gonna shift gears just a little bit. Now, like I talked about before, I had an opportunity to speak at the Canadian Bar Association's, uh, National Immigration Conference, ~um,~ uh, a few weeks ago, and we spoke on the panel with Jonathan Josip-Coop, who is kind of one of the head officials over Express Entry, and we talked about these reforms.
We talked about what was happening. ~Um,~ the IRCC has also done briefings with practitioners, with the Canadian Bar Association, with the immigration consultants, and, and there's been press releases and things like that. But what we wanna shift now [00:28:00] to is just talk a little bit just about some of these, ~um,~ I guess you'd call them...
It's kinda like beyond the press release, I guess. And there's so much speculation, and, you know, even what Alicia and I are talking about, a lot of it is our thoughts and opinions on where things are going because we don't have real hard data. They haven't dropped the, you know, the, the extra CRS bonus points.
They haven't done that yet. They've just talked about it and speculated about what they're gonna do. ~Um,~ how the new reforms will play out from a regulatory standpoint, we, you know, we don't really know. But what we can share is, you know, what the room, what the conversations that were happening in these, in these rooms, what was actually said.
And I'll be honest, there's kinda one signal, I guess, that, that gives us a little bit of warning. And so, ~um,~ let me just chat a little bit about that. And, ~um-~ Yeah. So now this is kind of what's happened. So, you know, all of it's about reshaping, ~um,~ by, by reform. And they're not throwing the baby com- entirely out with the bathwater, but the [00:29:00] reality is they're making some pretty significant changes.
And, uh, what we're gonna talk about is you can't find it on the government website because they haven't really released anything but very basic data. So when I was, ~um,~ in the room with IRCC when they're prese- presenting these changes, you know, to, to Ottawa, there were some things that really, really stood out.
And, uh, you know, it's, it's just, ~um...~ It's an interesting kind of situation. Oh, I got someone calling me right in the middle of our podcast here. Okay. So, so the- so what we're gonna try to do here is just touch on some of the main four pillars that people have to pay attention to that are not as readily available in the public just yet.
And, you know, these, there's... Like I said, I can't repeat enough that this is discussions that happened. They're not the law. We don't know 100% exactly what's gonna happen, but they're worth paying attention to, making note of. And, ~um,~ and then, you know, if you have an, a way in which you can try to accommodate for these [00:30:00] potential realities, ~um,~ but not give up kind of your standing right now, that's kind of how we would i- you know, advise you to, to approach it.
So, ~um,~ the high wage issue, Alicia, do you wanna start off with that? Mm-hmm. So high wage is new, right? We're looking at additional points. So, so far Mark and I have been talking about all the things that they will take away because it clearly seems like they are going to take away- Mm-hmm ... when we look at the CRS grid, when we look at section D, the additional bonus points, it looks like all those are pretty much gonna be wiped out.
Maybe they will keep some Canadian education for, for graduate education, but probably that's getting taken away. What they might add back is high wage or add, ~um,~ with a wrinkle, because we know that we used to have job offer points. And what is uncertain right now, and we've talked about this a bit in some of the other episodes, is how will they actually roll out high wage?
And we will talk about this more in future [00:31:00] episodes and, and really drill down. Hopefully more information will become publicly available as well. But we know that this high wage factor is going to change the game, and it'll probably change the game with enough of a CRS difference or enough of a CRS uplift to be significant, in the words of IRCC.
Yeah. And I would liken it to the institution of French. So I think it's gonna have just as high of an impact as adding the, the scores for, for French language ability. Okay. So high wage. So next thing is just to understand that your score isn't frozen. So it's, it's written in pencil. ~Um,~ if you're in the pool when the change drops, when the CRS scores are adjusted, well, your score, it, it's gonna get recalculated and, ~um,~ under the new rules.
And you're... Understand you're not grandfathered in, that the number you're staring at tonight is written in pencil, not in ink Mm-hmm. And here's the thing though, if you actually have an ITA, then [00:32:00] that ITA is still valid. So your invitation to apply locks things in based on the day you have received it, and then it's up to you to make sure that you get your complete electronic application for permanent residence in within those 60 days.
So you have to get that eAPR in, and of course, you have to make sure that you still meet basic eligibility within that 60-day window so that the day that you submit your application, it is complete. Yeah. All right, and one, I guess, piece of mercy we could describe it as, you know, those who've come and studied, ~um,~ all hope may not be lost, okay?
There's a little piece of mercy, and there's some indication, although we haven't seen exactly how this will play out, but there's some indication that not all of the Canadian study bonuses will vanish. ~Um,~ it may survive for higher degrees, even as, you know, it's cut for the shorter credentials, and we'll break down further that detail in episode 10.
So [00:33:00] the honesty, Alicia. Mm-hmm. And here's what we want to be clear about. People right now do not know what is going on with this high-wage occupation factor. So there's been speculation. IRCC has literally not said what the baseline is. So they have said that the data is going to be coming from Stats Can, ~um,~ labor market survey and the census data, as well as ESDC's Job Bank.
But they've not said for which year. Most of the time it's, it's backwards-facing, so we have better data for 2024 than we do for 2025, though they might be finalizing that soon. So it might be that the baseline for what constitutes high wage is gonna be somewhere maybe $30.77, maybe $32.44. We don't know. But it's gonna be somewhere [00:34:00] in a fairly high range, and then what they will do is they will apply a multiplication factor from the median.
So we know that they will have 1.3 times, 1.5 times, and then two times that high-wage national median, and that is what they'll look at when they're assessing whether somebody qualifies under this new high-wage occupation factor. All right. So here's the practical upshot, everyone, and it's, I think it's genuinely useful to consider it or think of it in this way.
These reforms basically move on two clocks. So the scoring changes, your CRS, well, that, that comes by a mechanism that needs no advance notice and can land any day. But the bigger structural changes, like we've talked about before, the merging of the programs, that has to go through the formal regulatory process.
It gets published in the Canada Gazette first, with the public comment period before it becomes law. That publication is the starting gun, and it is public. So if you want one thing to watch, I guess one tripwire that [00:35:00] tells you the big change is real, well, that's, that's what to watch for. And when that gazette is published, then we have a chance to kind of review where they're going with it and, and, and then make decisions.
But the score changes themselves, ~um,~ there's no-- there's not gonna be any warning. And when it changes, well, then you'll see your scores are instantly updated if you're in the pool, ~um,~ or at least you'll have a, a very clear indication then where you stand with respect to the comprehensive ranking system.
~Um,~ you know, where do we stand, Alicia? Like, what, what, what are your thoughts on all of this? Mm-hmm. And, you know, it, it's not a full slam dunk because there are aspects of the changes, the proposed changes, that are something relatively positive that we do agree with, like making things a little bit more streamlined, getting rid of those spousal points, for example, that are dragging down scores for married couples or, ~um,~ people who are in common law relationships.[00:36:00]
That's not fair. Let's take it away. That's a good thing. But there's also things like, well, what's gonna happen with this high wage occupation factor, and who's gonna lose because of it? Yeah. Okay, enough of the averages, Alicia. Enough of the stats. People that have been listening to the podcast are probably wondering, "Well, how is that actually gonna impact me?"
Okay, so let's go back. You guys will remember from previous episodes if you haven't, uh, listened in, so IRCC themselves created these, these scenarios, these individuals, Amal, Eric, Ken, and Charlotte. Okay? And, uh, so let's pull these up and, of course, ~um,~ you know, tonight we're, we're not doing their, their long-term arc.
The two questions that we're gonna ask is, and, and that I want you to consider yourselves too, where do you actually stand in the pool right now? And what is the single most important thing that you do in the next 90 days? One move each, the one that matters most. So we're gonna use these four scenarios as [00:37:00] kind of a little bit of a teaching s- tool, and you may settle into one of these categories.
You know, which the, the, the government's tried to make these fairly broad. So Alicia, let's start off with Amal, the physician. And yes, the 169 from our cold open, that was Amal Mm-hmm. Amal's clearly the winner. A-Amal has the best options through the main door, through the side door. Amal is a physician.
She's clearly got the strongest profile, and she has the strongest profile under the new system as well. And the main thing that Amal needs to do right now within the next 90 days is make sure that she has a properly completed profile, that everything that that profile is based on is accurate and backed up with the right documentation.
And so for Amal, the question is not, you know, will I eventually get an invitation to apply to Canada under express entry? Amal is a family physician, has [00:38:00] Canadian work experience. 100% Amal is eventually going to get an ITA. But really, one of the things that I notice that some of the physician clients that I've seen are making mistakes with, with express entry, are not getting the proper source documents.
And we know, of course, to get into the pool, you must have an official language test assessment, and you must have an education credential assessment. And so people who meet specialist occupations, physicians are among them, have to have a specific type of education credential assessment. The general ones do not qualify.
So the biggest thing Amal can do is make sure that she is properly looking at her source documentation when she creates her profile. All right. Eric, the senior executive living overseas. Bluntly, mm, back of the line right now. No Canadian experience. Past the age bonus peak, and more than past, probably zero bonus points at all, [00:39:00] uh, with age.
And the job offer points that he might be counting on if he's got this magical job with a Canadian company he's waiting for are switched off right now. So under today's rules, Eric is not even close to really almost either door. And in some cases, this is the interesting part, Alicia, in some cases, these individuals don't even qualify through the Federal Skilled Worker Program.
It's that job offer that kind of makes them eligible through the Federal Skilled Worker. So, uh, Eric may not even be able to get in the game. He's not even, he's not even participating right now. So what's his one move? Well- Yeah ... it's patience, right? Yeah, and also making sure that he understands the difference between currently the Federal Skilled Worker eligibility for arranged employment and the fact that he's not getting any CRS points for arranged employment.
So take a look at our blog, 'cause I've got an article about this as well. This is where under the current definition of arranged employment, those points still matter for the purposes of that 67-point selection factor [00:40:00] grid. But for Eric right now, that's his job. He's got to make sure, do I actually fit within the eligibility criteria for FSW?
Can I pass that 67-point selection pass mark? And maybe not for Eric, because he seems to be a senior executive making a lot of money, but for other Erics, other people who are only eligible under FSW, the other thing that's holding them back right now is whether they meet the eligibility because of settlement funds.
And so this is where I think a lot of people are declining an ITA under FSW, specifically if they got an invitation to apply under a Francophone draw, because they all of a sudden realize, uh-oh, I don't meet the settlement fund eligibility. I, I can't prove that for my family size I have enough funds.
Yeah. So if you're Eric, if you're somebody who is only looking at FSW, make sure that you have basic eligibility under your current selection factor pass mark and that you've got the settlement funds- Yeah ... because it might open [00:41:00] up the door when they all of a sudden- bring back those job offer points under the CRS Yeah.
That's so good, Alicia. Thank you for pointing that out. And I know that some of you may be wondering, "What the heck is Alicia talking about?" Well, within the FSW, there's the selection criteria, and part of it is having a job offer from a Canadian company that helps you to hit that sixty-seven-point threshold.
That is a different thing than how the comprehensive ranking system used to award job offer points. So, ~um,~ but what Alicia's saying right now is that to get that sixty-seven-point threshold, that job offer process is still alive and well. It's just that for most people who are outside of the country, even if they do get those job offer points to hit the F-FSW eligibility, the scores are so high right now that you're likely not to be drawn anyways.
So for Eric, his one move is patience. It, you know, it is preparation, not panic. Eric's the rare profile the reform is likely to help. A [00:42:00] high-wage job offer is exactly what the new factor is built to reward. We just don't know the details yet, right? And then Alicia, if we shift over here to Ca- to Ken and the crane operator in the trades, this is the one that is probably the most uncertain and confusing.
IRCC tells us that, hey, Ken's gonna benefit from these new rules. But you and I, as we've discussed in the past, this whole concept of, uh, you know, this catch twenty-two on the trade certification, I'm just not sure, so sure it's gonna play out like they think it's gonna play out, at least in their public-facing materials.
So what are your thoughts on the, the crane operator, Ken? Yeah, and this all depends on how we acknowledge trade certification. And so in the past, there's been a ton of confusion for professionals who say, "Oh, I got my project management, ~um,~ PMP," or, "Oh, you know, I'm a lawyer, and so don't I get my certificate of qualification 50 [00:43:00] bonus points?"
Well, no. You only get those certificate of qualification bonus points if you meet very strict requirements by meeting a trade qualifier, and you have licensing from the province or recognition of your trades or a Red Seal. And the difficulty is that in order to get Red Seal designations, you have to have usually gone through a process to accumulate journeyman or apprenticeship hours within your specific trade, and that means you need Canadian work experience with mentorship with an appropriate professional or a trades, uh, qualifier in order to get that.
So it really depends on how they are going to implement Red Seal and what does that mean. You bet. And now finally, we get to Charlotte, the food service supervisor, really the heart of the episode. And we saved her for last on purpose. Remember the third promise that I gave from the, at the top of the [00:44:00] episode?
The person who did everything right and is the most exposed of anyone in this refer-reform, it's Charlotte. Here's the cruel irony, and Alicia, you see this every week just like I do. Under the rules that exist tonight, Charlotte arguably has probably one of the best positions of the four, although I think, I think still our physician is number one in the current category-based draw world, if they do those draws.
But she's twenty-seven, so max age points. She has a Canadian diploma. Even if it's two years, a two-year diploma, under our calculations, you know, coupled with two years of Canadian work experience and, and likely at least a year of foreign work experience before she came to Canada, well, the system does reward her for that.
And I think it was about five hundred and fifteen points maybe we'd calculated for her if she had those basic things. But youth, Canadian study, Canadian, uh, and foreign work, you know, she's... If she's in the pool today, she's probably pretty [00:45:00] happy, ~um,~ at least if they continue to do the CEC general draws.
Now, run the reform against her. Her Canadian study, study po- bonuses, well, the points for that diploma is on the chopping block. Her job, food service supervisor, is below the median wage, clearly under every category. I think we don't have to have any misunderstandings about that. So the shiny new high wage factor is gonna, is gonna do nothing for her.
Her employer's job offer earns her nothing, uh, now or likely later. Every single thing that the reform rewards, Charlotte does not have, and the one thing she does have is basically being taken away. So, yeah. Person that did everything in the old system is, is basically asked of her is the one the new system is leaving behind.
So she's not rare, right? She, she stands in this, this whole group of about 73,000 people, uh, with a huge number of essential workers, the people who kept the country running during the pandemic, and, and what's gonna become of them? [00:46:00] So what's your thoughts on that? Uh, and this is the worst news. This is what we have to tell people every day right now, that even though you've done everything right, you paid international tuition fees that w- that were three times the Canadian education fees, you got your PGWP, you worked full-time, you gained Canadian experience, you had your foreign year of high-skilled work experience.
The bad news for Charlotte and people who are in the same boat as Charlotte is that now you need to do more. So now you need to start looking at PNP pathways. Now you start needing to probably learn French because under the new system, Charlotte's points are not probably going to be enough to get an ITA.
No. They're, they're just not. And, you know, so what do we say to her? Like you said, do we dive all in on French? Well, I don't think... It's hard because there's, there's different camps to this. We know how hard it is to learn French. It is not easy. [00:47:00] Obviously, the younger you are, the greater the ability you're gonna have to learn it.
We've also talked about, okay, maybe you can't hit the CLB 7 right now, all right. Mm-hmm. But if you can hit a 5, you buy yourself time- Right ... and through the Francophone mobilité. So maybe, you know, the, maybe the golden ticket isn't just this mad dash sprint and drop everything and just focus exclusively on French, you know, so that you can try to hit the CLB 7 in all four abilities.
~Um,~ you know, maybe that's not, you know, what you're gonna do 100%, but oh, uh, like I- no one can argue that, that making the effort is not worth it. Yeah. You know? If she can buy some time, then the world maybe resets a little bit. Maybe she has an opportunity to get a better job, a higher pay- paying job before his post-grad work permit runs out.
So that's, yeah, that, that's kind of the where we're settling on this, right? And, but I'd also say don't only do French and only [00:48:00] keep your job. Take a look also at, okay, do I have possibilities under PNP? We know PNPs become real competitive. So is there a possibility to go to one of those locations or one of the provinces or territories that has a little bit of a better chance?
So maybe you're looking at the Maritimes, maybe you're looking at the Atlantic provinces, maybe you're looking at the Atlantic Immigration Program or the Rural Communities Initiative or the Francophone Communities Initiative, and so starting to look at centers outside of those major census metropolitan areas.
Yeah. So here's our actual position, everyone. It's not a footnote, it's more of a conviction. The category draws are supposed to be the safety valve for workers like Charlotte, but the safety valve only works if the right categories exist, if they're run often, run at volume, and have broad enough occupation lists.
And the STEM, like we've pointed out, that blackout just proves that that valve can actually [00:49:00] jam. The place that gets fixed is the next category consultation. That's where, that's when the, these things are adjusted. And I'll be honest, Alicia, if they didn't- weren't gonna do STEM draws, I don't know why they kept them in.
But it is what it is, so we know that that's expected later this year. Uh, we will be in that conversation for sure. We'll o- we always offer our thoughts and opinions on it. And, ~um,~ if you employ or represent essential workers, I think everybody should be contributing to that as well. But enough of these four sample cases.
~Um,~ let's talk about where people find themselves on the board right now, these five moves that maybe people could make, ~um,~ before the whole landscape shifts. Mm-hmm. So the important thing is really understanding your score under the current system and what your score may be under a future system. So go through this, and I literally have had clients build out detailed spreadsheets, and then I get together with them and we [00:50:00] talk strategy.
And so take a look at, all right, you know, maybe I think 470 is hopeless, but oh, wait, I'm in a category-based draw under healthcare, and a 470 is actually gonna be something that's reasonable. So understand what your score is, what is moving, and what your score will go to. It's really important. Yeah. Next, find your side door.
So this is probably the highest leverage thing most people, they just never check. I know there are a lot of people that watch our, uh, YouTube channel and listen to the podcast, and they're right on top of it. But a lot of other people, whether it's just the comfort of your existing position, if it's just the fear of the unknown, the hope that things are magically gonna change, but the reality is you need to look up your occupation's category eligibility.
Does it fit within healthcare, trades, French, and, and the rest? If a side door exists for you, it can be at times worth [00:51:00] more than the extra 20 points that you might see right in front of you. ~Um,~ and uh, it's not easy. We have these painful, painful discussions, especially with families maybe who are living in large centers and they say, "Well, what should we do?
Our, our company can't support us. Our wage isn't high enough. You know, what do we do?" And, and often I have to tell them, "Well, look, in some provinces, living in more rural locations gives you options." And for most people, ~um,~ the... you know, if you don't see a bright, clear line to permanent residence, then you need to find a way to stretch that line out, and that is by trying to extend your work permit.
And it's often easier to do that in more rural locations if you're then trying to secure a labor market impact assessment. But sometimes buying time is the way to get into that side door if you don't have one available to you right now, and it requires you to actually change occupations. ~Um,~ one other thing I'll put in here on this topic is something that I advise all my clients, so it's a little, a little tip.
Now, if you're [00:52:00] switching jobs and you're gonna take a new position with a new company and you're a- you know, you've got multiple job offers or even one you're seriously considering, a question that you always have to ask, and I think it's fair and you shouldn't be afraid to ask it, is whether or not the company has a policy of not supporting permanent residence.
And that's different than going up to them and saying, "Hey, I know you're interviewing me for this position, but does your company... you know, will you support me with my permanent residence?" Well, that's probably not the approach that you want to take. But ~um,~ knowing whether or not they ultimately have an, just a, a blanket policy of not doing it really should be your determiner in whether or not you actually wanna take that job because if you know you're going into a job where they're not even gonna probably give you a proper reference letter, then you're just digging yourself into a hole that you're not gonna be able to climb out of, and you're losing that time that you're working for them.
Even though you are arguably getting Canadian work experience, ultimately so many of the pathways require [00:53:00] some form of support from your employer. So always keep that in mind Yeah. Tip number three, thing that you can do number three is understand if your foundation is completely shaky. If you're built on sand, you've got to pivot.
And so this is where we know that those bonus points are likely disappearing. We've talked about this in previous episodes. You know, they're probably taking away the Canadian sibling points, 15 of them. They're probably taking away the French bonus points of 50, which, you know, shouldn't matter as much as long as they do category-based draws under Francophone, which means you're still getting that side door entry.
But what happens if they take away those Canadian study bonus points? What happens if they just totally wipe them out? Right now they range from 15 to 30 points, and that is a big point swing. And so if your Canadian study points, bonus points are on the chopping block, then that's a big factor, and that might mean that you need to now start [00:54:00] hustling to try to find other ways that you might be eligible for PR or maximize your, your possibility under the new express entry system.
Spousal grid, ~um,~ that'll change things when they take away those 40 points for people who are in a relationship. And then the other thing to think about is when's your next birthday? And if you're turning older than age 29, every year you get a little birthday present of losing five points under the CRS grid.
So when you're looking at your forward projections, make sure to factor that in. Yeah. And you think about it too, Alicia, the older you get, the more punishing it is, right? I think it's when you hit 40, then it's 10 points you lose. So all right. Number four, which we shouldn't even have to say, but we just see it happen so often.
Check the expiry date on your documents. They can literally erase you from the equation. You know, your language tests we know are valid for two years. If it expires while you're in your pool, you'll be like, "What the heck? [00:55:00] What happened? Why am I not in the pool anymore?" You get knocked out and, and it could be at the worst possible time.
And if you're not paying attention, the worst scenario is then there's some kind of draw that you would've been eligible for, but y- y- your profile has disappeared. And if these changes do drop all of a sudden, the very, very first thing that you are going to do as an applicant is to go immediately to the pool and see how it has impacted your score.
~Um,~ we've had situations before where they'd made changes, like to language and eligibility to com- compli- uh, to, to, uh, claim Canadian education, especially during the pandemic when people sometimes weren't able to attend in person. They had to make modifications, and every person in the pool had to go back in and kind of reset and re-answer the questions to get their pool, uh, their profile active again.
So if yours is expiring within the next six months, rebook it now Don't, you know, and maybe you can even aim higher. Maybe there's an ability to score a little bit more. Every single [00:56:00] point could make the difference. And once again, you know, French really is, is that French side door. If you have an ability to unlock it, it just, it makes the whole world different for you.
And here's the thing I've been hearing from my clients, Mark, with respect to the French test. So we know that you have to take the TCF or the TEF exam, and people have been saying it's actually hard to get a test date. These are starting to book up well in advance, so make sure that you are prepared and you book those tests early.
Even if you think you're not ready for French yet, I would recommend you fail early and you fail often, right? Take that test. See how you do. Remember that you can use the highest score. So you can't mix and match between different language tests, but if you do one exam and then you do a second exam and you score better on the second, great.
But if you actually regressed and your first test was better, use the first test. So there's no downside other than the fact that you've got to pay fees every time you take the language test. All right, [00:57:00] everyone. So at the beginning, I talked a little bit about this broken, this broken kind of clock. Uh, broken scoreboard, I guess we could say.
So you can look at it now. You can see the real board. Two doors, not one. A front door at five eighteen that is only getting harder, and a side door that changes literally the entire math, uh, at least when they're open. A score written in pencil until the day you hold an invitation, and four faces that show you the whole range from Amal walking through the open door to Charlotte racing a clock she did not start.
That is where things stand tonight. But standing still was never the point. Starting Thursday, we s- we stop describing the changes and start taking them apart one at a time, exactly what each one does, and we're gonna dive a whole lot deeper into this, you guys. And, uh, episode six is kind of we're gonna talk about the program merger, uh, the day those three day...
those three doors essentially become one. [00:58:00] We've talked a lot about that before, but we wanna drill a little bit deeper into there 'cause there is more to talk about. And ultimately, here's the question that, you know, you should, should actually keep, I guess, most of you up at night. At least it does us. When they collapse these three programs into a single front door, does it open wider for the people who were shut out or quietly lock out the very people the old system was letting in?
So we're gonna try to answer that. Then one at a time, the high wage factor, job offers, the spousal grid, the removals, the trades, like every episode for here will be an answer going forward. Mm-hmm. And so if we've been talking and you don't understand where you stand or you think there's a whole bunch of uncertainty in your future, this is exactly the kind of conversation that we have.
This is what we do every day as we sit down with people and we go through their unique life circumstances and their family circumstances, and we try to strategize because [00:59:00] it's just so important now to be extremely targeted in terms of how you are planning for your future instead of passive. Exactly.
All right. Anyone who needs assistance or wants to kinda jump on with us and do a little strategy session, uh, holthelaw.com/consultation is where you can find us. There'll be information to click in the link below. ~Um,~ wherever you're watching this on YouTube or listening to it on iTunes, you can track us down.
Okay, Alicia, we'll see you again as we pull up episode six. Take care, everybody
